Skymet Weather Services Private Limited, India’s leading weather analytics firm, had released its monsoon foreshadow for 2021 on April 13, 2021 and is now updating the forecast.
Skymet believes that there is a 60% chance of below normal, forecasting Monsoon to be at 94% of the long period average with an error margin of +/- 4% (LPA= 880.6mm for the 4 month period from June to September.
The Southwest Monsoon had a timely onset and made a good start with June ending above normal at 110% of the long period average (LPA).
July started on a weak note and the month was marred with a pronged break till 11th July. Therefore the month finished with below
normal rainfall at 93% of LPA. June and July ended with 110% and 93% of LPA against Skymet’s forecast of 106% and 97% respectively.
The Southwest Monsoon encountered 2nd ‘break monsoon’ phase during the 1st fortnight of August. Extended weak monsoon conditions resulted Pan-India seasonal rainfall deficiency to settle at 9% till middle of August. The below normal status of monsoon has not improved till
now.
In terms of geographical risk, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Odisha, Kerala and Northeast India are likely to be hit with deficient rains. The chance of drought over Gujarat and West Rajasthan appear imminent.
However, the spacial distribution of rainfall over the rainfed areas of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh has been adequate. Accordingly, the food production in the agri bowl of central parts may not be stressed and skewed.
According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet,” the weakness in the Monsoon could possibly be attributed to prolonged -ve phase of IOD in the Indian Ocean and extended break conditions in July and August.
