The destiny of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican opponent and former President Donald Trump will depend on the seven swing states in the pivotal 2024 US presidential election. As both candidates compete for 270 of the 538 electoral votes needed to become the President, these crucial states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—have 93 electoral votes and serve as the main battlegrounds.
Depending on the election, swing states—also known as battleground states—can alternate between Republican and Democratic support. Candidates concentrate their efforts on these states in an attempt to influence voters and win important electoral votes because of their historically close margins of victory and fluctuating results over time.
Both Trump and Harris staged extensive rallies in Pennsylvania, the biggest swing state with 19 electoral college votes, on the last day of the campaign.
Three states in particular—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—are critical to Harris’s campaign, even though all seven states are important for any campaign. Known as the “Blue Wall”, these states were dependable Democratic forts until Trump flipped all three in 2016, breaking the Democrats’ winning streak in the region.
Joe Biden narrowly won these states back for the Democrats in 2020, underscoring their competitiveness and making them crucial for Harris to win in 2024.
Swing States in Detail
Pennsylvania has historically been a Democratic state, but Trump’s victory by a slim margin of 0.7% in 2016 highlighted the state’s role as a battlefield. Although Biden won back Pennsylvania by a 1.2% advantage in 2020, the race is still very close. Winning Pennsylvania would greatly increase Harris’s chances of winning the race for president because the state has 19 electoral votes. The state’s sizable working-class and unionised populations were enthusiastically courted by both camps.
Michigan is a further significant part of the “Blue Wall” and has often supported the winner in recent elections. As the first Republican to win in Michigan since 1988, Trump’s 2016 triumph was a significant upset. Support from Michigan’s sizable Arab-American community helped Biden win the state by a margin of over 154,000 votes in 2020. In 2024, holding onto Michigan is seen to be crucial for Harris because the state’s 15 electoral votes may make the difference in a close contest.
In the last two elections, Wisconsin has voted for the winner, although by extremely narrow margins. Gaining or losing Wisconsin can determine the outcome of a close race; therefore, Harris’s victory will be vital.
In 2020, Biden narrowly won Arizona by 10,457 votes, making him just the second Democrat to win the state in 70 years. Arizona continues to be a high priority for both campaigns because to its sizable suburban and Latino voter bases.
The first Democratic victory in Georgia since 1992 came in 2020 when Biden narrowly won the state, primarily thanks to strong voter participation among African Americans, who make up a sizable share of the state’s population. Gaining Georgia once again may boost Harris’s number of votes and strengthen the Democratic Party’s position in the Sun Belt.
Though historically Republican, North Carolina is still competitive. Despite Trump’s narrow victories in 2016 and 2020, the state remains competitive for both parties due to its expanding urban centres and demographic shifts.
Normally a Democratic state, Nevada has exhibited indications of a possible Republican comeback because of the state’s economic difficulties and high unemployment rate. Although Biden won the state by around 33,600 votes in 2020, Nevada may turn against him in 2024 because of problems, including the post-Covid recovery.
Nonpartisan analysts estimate that Harris needs around 45 electoral votes beyond her anticipated “safe” states to reach the 270-mark, with a strong focus on Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Winning these three “Blue Wall” states could significantly boost her chances of victory.
For Trump, a path to 270 would likely involve reclaiming pivotal battleground states he won in 2016, particularly Pennsylvania and Michigan, along with making inroads in traditionally Democrat-leaning states like North Carolina.
In the lead-up to polling day, both Harris and Trump have campaigned intensively in these swing states. Harris has emphasised messages of unity and community, seeking to consolidate support in both the “Blue Wall” and Sun Belt states. Meanwhile, Trump has focused on criticising the current administration and pledging economic recovery.
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