With the Lion Census 2025 approaching, forest officials suggest that the population of Asiatic lions in Gujarat could reach 900 in the official count, with informal estimates placing the number between 1,400 and 1,500. The final figures are expected to be released in June after the census, scheduled between May 10 and 13.
The 2020 census reported 674 lions, though internal assessments at the time estimated the population at around 1,000.
Forest officials have revealed that Gujarat’s approach to census reporting has been traditionally conservative. “Official lion numbers could touch 900 in the 2025 census. Informal estimations, however, peg this number close to 1,400-1,500 in the state,” a senior forest official told a national daily.
An expert from the Wildlife Institute of India (WII) explained that big cat censuses often include a 10% error margin. While the National Tiger Conservation Authority reports tiger populations within a range, Gujarat has opted to announce only the lower end of its lion estimates.
“The discrepancy exists because wildlife census figures typically include a deliberately conservative margin,” the WII expert said.
Monthly population checks are conducted during full moons, including cubs below one year of age. However, these numbers are adjusted in the official count due to the high mortality rate among cubs.
A WII study revealed that cubs face a 60% infanticide rate, with abandonment accounting for 13% of deaths and other natural causes making up 27%. “If during the census, 100 cubs are spotted, only 50% are shown in the count, which is an accepted practice during the count of Big Cats,” a top forest official noted.
The growth in the lion population is evident in their expanding territory. From 22,000 sq km in 2015, their range extended to 30,000 sq km by 2020, reflecting a 36% increase.
Lions are now found across the Saurashtra region, except Devbhumi Somnath, with recent sightings near Diu, Jetpur, and Rajkot. Viral videos have captured lions roaming along the shoreline in Gir Somnath district.
A former WII wildlife expert expressed belief that the actual lion population is much higher than the official estimates suggest. Citing the deaths of 165 cubs and sub-adults and applying a 10-15% mortality rate, he estimated the population could range between 1,100 and 1,650.
Another senior lion expert speculated that the government might deliberately report lower numbers to mitigate public concerns over rising human-animal conflict.
Concerns have also been raised regarding the census methodology.
Forest officials are expected to conduct the count without involving WII volunteers or using CCTV cameras, as in previous years. Critics argue that the absence of these measures may compromise the accuracy of the results. Despite these concerns, the upcoming census is anticipated to provide insight into the success of Gujarat’s lion conservation efforts.
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