A north–south divide is imminent in the country. This might place the ruling party, dominating in the north, at a disadvantage. The higher echelons of the ruling party are conscious of this and are trying to paper over it through various moves.
But first, the problem and its various complications: Parliamentary democracy began in India after the first election, which was held in 1952. To start with, the Lok Sabha (or the House of the People) had 489 seats. It was agreed that the number of seats would increase after each election, taking into account the population increase. By 1962, the number of seats had increased to 520. No problem with this, but the complication was that the number of seats was not increasing uniformly across the country. States that had kept population increases in check (perhaps through successful implementation of family planning measures) were states where the number of seats was kept in check. This was not the case in states where the population increased rampantly.
These states were landing up with more seats. According to rough calculations, seats were increasing more in states like UP and Bihar. The first call for freezing the number of seats in the country came from Tamil Nadu, which sought a freeze in the number of seats because it claimed it had successfully implemented family planning. Tamil Nadu’s case was taken up by DMK MP Murasoli Maran, who asked for a freezing of the total number of seats in the Lok Sabha. Largely through his strenuous efforts, the total number of seats in the Lok Sabha was frozen at the then-level of 543 seats for another 30 years. The 30 years would come to an end in 2001.
In 1996, with 2001 being close, a conference was held at the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) on how to move forward in this matter. The conference was chaired by the then-Lok Sabha Speaker P.A. Sangma, and the speakers included the then-Home Minister Indrajit Gupta, Pranab Mukherjee of the Congress, Jaswant Singh of the BJP, and an assortment of speakers from across the industry. The background paper for the conference—on which the discussions took place—was prepared by this writer. Admittedly, the speakers were confounded and offered no concrete solution on how to move forward. Pranab Mukherjee, later to be the President of India, added to the confusion by saying, “We can extend the freeze in the number of seats by another 30 years; who is there to stop us?”
But there was a problem that Mr. Mukherjee did not address. In another 30 years, the population of the country would have gone up many times more, and to delimit and redistribute it would lead to more confusion.
A few years later, as the country approached 2001, the Tamil Nadu Assembly demanded that increases in Lok Sabha seats be stopped for another 50 years. It was ultimately decided to keep the number of Lok Sabha seats frozen until 2026—or the first census after 2026 (which will mean 2031). This is the status quo until now. But in the meantime, more confusion has been created by the stoppage of the census.
The census did not take place in 2021—apparently because of the confusion and loss of lives owing to the breakdown of administrative services caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The census has not taken place till now. Thus, the latest census figures available are from 2011. It is easy to understand that new Lok Sabha seats cannot be drawn up on the basis of 2011 population figures. This will lead to utter confusion.
Now, there is more confusion since Congress leader Rahul Gandhi wants to add backwardness as another criterion that will lead to the reservation of more seats for backward communities. Meanwhile, there is a demand for the reservation of seats for women from some quarters. Telangana Chief Minister Revant Reddy, while seeking more seats in the Lok Sabha, has gone ahead and conducted a new census that will allow for more seats for backward communities.
This means that delimitation would become a more confused exercise, with the south-north division becoming more real.
Delimitation is also taking on a new dimension, with many opposition parties wanting to be players in the game. Punjab, where Sikhs are in large numbers, wants to side with the opposition parties—because, traditionally, Sikhs, for historical reasons, are not in favour of the BJP. Odisha’s former Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik is also anti-BJP now, and so is the West Bengal government led by Mamata Banerjee.
Gujarat, which dominates the present BJP leadership, has no independent view but is probably aligned with the national BJP perspective. The RSS, the ruling ideologue of the BJP, is against delimitation. Maharashtra, where the RSS view dominates, is also against it. All this implies that what would have been a north-south matter has become a BJP–non-BJP affair. Where will all this lead to? Search me, is what I can say.
But meanwhile, since the population of the country is increasing manifold, each constituency will see a huge increase in voters. Only members with huge resources (moneyed folks) can contest each seat, or the number of MPs in Parliament should be increased many times. What is the answer?
