With the BJP contesting just 19 of the total 47 seats in Kashmir Valley in the upcoming assembly polls, this is going to be the party’s lowest number since 1996. At least 28 seats are thus without a BJP candidate this time. In contrast, it has fielded a candidate in every one of the Jammu division’s 43 Assembly seats.
In 1996 it fielded candidates in just 13 Assembly seats. This was just months after it emerged as the single largest party in Parliament and formed a government at the Centre for the first time – even though short-lived.
In the two prior Assembly elections of 1983 and 1987 in J&K, the BJP, still in its early years after it was floated out of the erstwhile Jana Sangh in 1980, had contested only three and two seats, respectively.
Over the years though, the BJP has expanded its presence in the erstwhile state, particularly the Kashmir division. After 1996, it more than doubled the number of seats it contested to 28 in the following 2002 polls. In 2008, it contested 26 seats, and in 2014, it fielded candidates in 34 seats.
In 1983 and 1987, Kashmir had a total 42 Assembly seats, which rose to 46 in the subsequent elections, till 2014. After the 2022 delimitation, Kashmir has 47 Assembly constituencies.
In contrast, the party has been a much more consistent presence in the Jammu division. In 1983, just three years after the BJP came into existence, it fielded 24 candidates in Jammu. In 1987, it contested 27 seats, followed by 37 in 1996, 29 in 2002, and 37 each in 2008 and 2014.
Barring 1983, 1987 and 2002, the BJP contested every Assembly seat in the Jammu division. In 1983 and 1987, there were 32 seats in Jammu, although in 1983, the result of the Doda seat was withheld. From 1996 to 2014, there were a total 37 Assembly seats across Jammu. While the number of constituencies it has been contesting in Kashmir has risen consistently – till now – the BJP has never won an Assembly seat in the Valley. Its vote share of 2.24% in 2014, the “Modi wave” year that saw the BJP come to power at the Centre, was its highest ever for Kashmir.
In 1983, the BJP drew a blank in all the 27 seats it contested across J&K. In 1987, it won its first two seats in Jammu. In the elections that followed, the party failed to open its account in Kashmir, although it increased its seat tally in Jammu. In 1996, the party won eight seats in Jammu but it fell to just one seat in 2002. In 2008, it won 11 seats in Jammu, and in 2014, it won 25.
In 2014, its 25 seats in Jammu helped the BJP form its first government in J&K, with the PDP that had won all its 28 seats in Kashmir joining hands with it.
In terms of vote shares, too, there has been a considerable gap between the BJP’s performance in the Jammu and Kashmir divisions. In its first election in the erstwhile state in 1983, though it secured a 7.99% vote share in Jammu, it only managed 0.6% in Kashmir. While its Jammu vote shares climbed in the subsequent elections, the BJP made only marginal improvements in Kashmir. In Jammu, the party’s vote share peaked at 40.15% in 2014.
From 1983 to 2014, only three of the total 106 BJP candidates fielded in Kashmir did not forfeit their deposits for failing to secure at least one-sixth of the vote share.
Also Read: ‘Speed Up Process Of Shutting Down Gujarat’s Loss-Making PSUs’
