Maharashtra is witnessing a tussle over three Ts — Thackeray, treachery and tolerance, making it the premier state’s most exciting election this century.
This election marks the first time in the past decade that the dominance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is at stake, following the emergence of Narendra Modi on the national scene.
The legacy of Bal Thackeray is getting traction in the polls as well as the issue of treason in the wake of the BJP engineering splits in two key regional parties, an unprecedented development in the state, founded in 1960.
Tolerance of the people has also become a key matter. The politics of engineering splits has not gone down well in the state, which had hardly known the ‘Aayaram Gayaram’ phenomenon.
What has made the tussle further complex is that an unprecedented socio-economic-political cocktail is witnessed in the wealthiest state. The agitation and fears among the OBCs over the Maratha reservation have led to much turmoil. Despite being the dominant community, the Marathas feel they have suffered for a long time. Meanwhile, the backward classes apprehend that their share of the quota will be affected if the Marathas are given a quota.
It would be a catastrophe if social groups felt that their tolerance had been tested for too long. The issue of agrarian distress is getting accentuated with the state witnessing the largest number of suicides by farmers. The most urbanised state has all the problems of civic neglect amid growing industrialisation.
Courtesy, Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, mild-mannered Maharashtra was forced to witness so much drama on the political stage in the past few years. People are still shocked and dazed over the high-pitched Opposition claims and propaganda “pacchas ke khoke, ekdam ok (50 crores, everything is ok)”.
The Ladki Bahin scheme and other such programmes at the 11th hour show the desperation of the ruling alliance which complains of being a victim of a false narrative in the recent polls. The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) could be coming up with a match through its manifesto. No one is going to leave anything to chance while luring voters. The moral of the story is that the health of the economy is the last on the agenda of the rival alliances.
Whatever truth or otherwise, the belief among people is growing that those who claim to represent them as their ‘loyal servants’ have amassed much. This could lead to unpredictable consequences in the polls scheduled in October-November.
Those in the ruling dispensation believe that whatever anger the people had against the BJP and its allies is over with the Lok Sabha elections where their tally has dropped from 41 in 2019 to a mere 17 this time. BJP leaders like Devendra Fadnavis insist that the gap in votes between the Maha Yuti and the MVA is just 25 lakhs and this could be overcome with micromanagement.
An Opposition MP, re-elected for the third time, claimed that the scale and magnitude of money power in this election surpassed anything he had seen before, suggesting that the use of ‘Mahatma Gandhi’ card (currency notes) will be widespread in the assembly polls due to the high stakes involved.
The health or otherwise of the rival alliances will be known once the seat allocation is finalised amid claims and counterclaims. The MVA had stolen the march in the Lok Sabha polls by an almost smooth exercise.
All is not well in the ruling Maha Yuti. The politics of Modi-Shah have created bad blood among those at the helm of the three prominent constituents worrying over being upstaged by the other in some way, post polls.
No one knows who is being projected as the chief ministerial candidate for the Maha Yuti, but Fadnavis has made it known time and again that the BJP is the elder brother. Finally, Fadnavis has been given the power by the BJP to decide on the seat-sharing and candidates — a stabilising development for the party.
It is equally true that there is a twinkle in the eye of chief minister Eknath Shinde after his Sena (Shinde) had a better strike rate than the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls. Though Ajit Pawar and his Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) are facing an existential crisis, he considers himself the senior leader in the alliance. He is doing everything possible to put up a good show.
The picture is not different in the opposition MVA. Uddhav Thackeray feels that he is the natural choice as the chief minister candidate. State Congress president Nana Patole is also an ambitious man and his party has scored the best with 13 seats in the Lok Sabha, indicating that its mass base is still intact.
Sharad Pawar has sought to keep the rival ambitions capped by proclaiming that the Aghadi is the chief ministerial candidate. The octogenarian leader has been known as the wily fox in the politics of Maharashtra for a long time, respected and feared by his supporters and detractors alike.
Thackeray is taking pains to obliquely project that he is the rightful claimant as he was not only toppled as the chief minister but attempts were also made to “steal” his whole party, which is unprecedented.
Non-projection of a leader could help the Aghadi partners to do their best goes the argument.
The election this time is different because aspirants, old and new, are much more and therefore there are bound to be more rebels. It could be as if there is no tomorrow. Some former MLAs who have lost in the last one or two elections have made it known that they would be contesting this time even if they fail to get tickets from their present parties.
It could also be the election that would witness the highest number of young and fresh faces being fielded by various parties despite the dominance of the old guard. Already there are predictions that it could witness a record ‘massacre’ of the old timers in ticket distribution to accommodate fresh faces.
With the charisma of Modi declining, polls in Maharashtra along with Haryana, Jharkhand and later Delhi would show which way the wind is blowing.
Sunil Gatade and Venkatesh Kesari are New Delhi-based journalists.
This article was originally published on The Wire on August 15, 2024.
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