Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who had recently secured a record fourth consecutive term and fifth overall as the country’s political head, saw her 15-year rule come to an abrupt end. Often revered by her supporters as the “Iron Lady,” Hasina’s tenure was marked by significant political stability in a country once frequently disrupted by military rule. However, her leadership was not without controversy, as critics often accused her of “autocratic tendencies.” The 76-year-old leader is the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founding father of Bangladesh. Hasina’s political career, which began in the shadow of her father, ultimately led her to become one of the world’s longest-serving female heads of government. Under her leadership, Bangladesh saw notable economic growth, infrastructure development, and an improved global standing.
Political uncertainty
Hasina’s leadership faced staunch opposition, particularly from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. The BNP, along with its allies, boycotted the January election in which Hasina secured her historic fourth consecutive term, citing concerns over electoral fairness. Hasina’s departure marks the end of an era in Bangladeshi politics, leaving the future political landscape uncertain. As the country reflects on her legacy, the debate over her leadership style and the balance between stability and democracy will undoubtedly continue.
Hasina’s journey
Born in erstwhile East Pakistan (now in Bangladesh) in September 1947, Hasina became active in politics while studying at the University of Dhaka in the late 1960s. She served as her father’s political liaison during his imprisonment by the Pakistani government. After Bangladesh gained independence from Pakistan in 1971, her father Mujibur Rahman became the president and then prime minister of the country. However, in August 1975, Rahman, his wife and their three sons were assassinated in their home by military officers. Hasina and her younger sister Sheikh Rehana survived the purge as they were abroad. Hasina, who spent six years in exile in India, was elected as the leader of the Awami League, a party founded by her father.
In 1981, Hasina returned home and became vocal about democracy in the country ruled by the military, which placed her under house arrest on multiple occasions. In the 1991 general elections, the Hasina-led Awami League failed to secure a majority. Her rival Khaleda Zia of the BNP became Prime Minister. Five years later, Hasina was elected prime minister in the 1996 general elections. Hasina was voted out of office in the 2001 elections but returned to power with a thumping victory in 2008 polls. Khaleda Zia-led BNP has been left in the lurch since then. Hasina escaped an assassination bid in 2004 when a grenade exploded at her rally.
Controversies and crackdowns
Soon after coming to power in 2009, Hasina set up a tribunal to try 1971 war crimes cases. The tribunal convicted some high-profile members of the opposition, sparking violent protests. Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamist party and a key ally of BNP, was banned from participating in elections in 2013. BNP chief Khaleda Zia was sentenced to 17 years in prison on corruption charges. The BNP boycotted the 2014 elections but joined the one in 2018, which party leaders later said was a mistake, alleging that the voting was marred with widespread rigging and intimidation. In the 2024 elections, the BNP and its allies boycotted the votes, demanding polls under a non-party caretaker government. They alleged that Hasina cannot deliver credible voting.
Election boycott and protests
The polls were fought by 27 political parties, including the parliamentary opposition Jatiya Party. Most of the remaining parties were members of the ruling coalition led by the Awami League, which experts have described as “satellite parties.” The election’s credibility came under scrutiny due to the boycott by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which resulted in a notably low voter turnout. Six months following the elections, massive protests erupted against the government over a controversial quota system. This system reserved 30 per cent of government jobs for the relatives of veterans from Bangladesh’s War of Independence in 1971. The protests turned violent, leading to the deaths of over 300 protesters and ultimately resulting in the dramatic ouster of the ruling government.
Challenges for India
The developments in the neighbouring country has put India in a tricky situation. PM Modi chaired a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security to discuss the situation that has immense strategic ramifications for New Delhi. The Centre is yet to publicly state how it plans to navigate this neighbourhood crisis and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar will brief MPs at an all-party meeting soon. After her escape from Dhaka, Hasina landed at the Hindon airbase in Delhi and is likely to fly to the UK to seek political asylum. However, there is no confirmation on whether the UK has offered asylum to her, so it is not clear what happens if the UK does not give her a green signal. Will she then stay in India or seek another destination?
India now faces a diplomatic dilemma and does not want to be seen as overtly backing the ousted leader because that may complicate its relationship with the new dispensation in Bangladesh. Also important is the history of Sheikh Hasina’s relationship with India. Long before she became Prime Minister, the Indira Gandhi government had given her refuge after her whole family, including father Mujibur Rahaman, was assassinated during the 1975 unrest in Bangladesh. So abandoning her at this point will also not be an easy decision, considering her equations with Delhi.
In Sheikh Hasina, New Delhi had a friend in Bangladesh, and her uninterrupted tenure since 2009 saw a major boost in New Delhi-Dhaka ties. It is not clear what role the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami, who backed the protests in Bangladesh, will play in the new government. Both these parties are no friends of India and can rather align with China.
The term of BNP chief Khaleda Zia was a rocky phase in Delhi-Dhaka ties. Khaleda Zia, who was freed from prison after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, has in the past used her anti-India stance as an election plank and pressed that New Delhi has been interfering in Bangladesh’s internal politics. The Jamaat on the other hand has close links with Pakistan, and India would be closely watching the developments in Dhaka. A big concern for India amid reports of violence against minorities in Bangladesh is a large-scale influx of refugees fleeing atrocities. The Border Security Force (BSF) has issued a high alert across the international border.
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