Talk to anyone on the streets of Jammu or Kashmir about elections and, despite their lack on unanimity on most issues, both regions want early elections and restoration of “full” statehood. The criticism of the manner in which the Ministry of Home Affairs recently decided to grant near-absolute powers to the Lieutenant Governor (LG), which many say are even more than those currently enjoyed by the LG of Delhi, is muted but palpable.
On December 11, 2023, a Constitution bench of the Supreme Court, while upholding the abrogation of the special status granted to the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir, had ordered the Central government to restore statehood of Jammu and Kashmir – minus Ladakh – and hold assembly elections in J&K by September 30, 2024.
In the third week of June this year, the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced that revised electoral rolls in the region would be published by August 20, a sure sign, many in the region thought that elections were on their way.
On July 31, the ECI directed the Jammu and Kashmir chief secretary and the chief electoral officer to ensure that officers posted in their home districts and those who have completed three years in a district were transferred.
However, unlike other states that are poll-bound and where such transfers have to be done much before elections are held, in the case of Jammu and Kashmir, the ECI has set September 30, 2024 as the deadline. The ECI directive comes weeks after Narendra Modi, on June 20, on his first visit to the state after taking oath as the prime minister for the third time, assured the people of the erstwhile state and now Union Territory that statehood would be restored soon and people would be able to vote in to elect their government.
“Preparations for assembly elections have begun. The day is not far when the people of Jammu and Kashmir will vote to elect their government,” Modi had said at an event in Srinagar.
However, very few in the region are buying into this narrative any longer. Despite the ECI directive and the prime minister’s words, many feel the government and the ECI would not complete the electoral process by September 30 — the date fixed by the Supreme Court.
Almost six years after the state assembly was dissolved, a precursor to the partial abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, and despite the Supreme Court’s directive to hold elections by September 30, the buzz on the streets is that elections may not be held soon.
The main reason behind this, prominent locals, on both sides of the Jawahar Tunnel — the most important bridge between the two regions of the erstwhile state — say is that, hugely unpopular, even in its erstwhile citadel of Hindu-dominated Jammu region, the BJP does not want to take any chance at getting exposed.
The local BJP leaders also admit that the demand for restoration of full statehood and not a truncated Delhi-like status — Union Territory with an elected assembly — is growing and they face questions over it regularly, including from their supporters.
Sources in the state BJP told The Wire that the Central government, either on its own, or through the ECI, could move an application in the Supreme Court, seeking an extension in the deadline to hold elections.
The reason that the Supreme Court could be given is that situation in the erstwhile state is still not conducive for holding elections.
The recent spate of militancy-related killings, including of security and armed forces’ officers and personnel in the other-wise peaceful Jammu region, could be used to buttress the request.
“Holding elections are not a priority right now. Bringing back normalcy is. Everything is running smoothly. But if elections are held, we are ready. In fact, we have already been told by our central leadership to start making preparations,” asserts a BJP leader, who didn’t wish to be quoted.
When prodded, this leader grudgingly admitted that one reason elections had not been held in the last almost five years was the realisation within the BJP top brass that the party faced a massive loss of ground due to growing resentment over unabated corruption, lack of job opportunities and development, as well as the control of institutions and businesses by “outsiders”.
“We are certainly on the backfoot. The misgovernance by the LG’s administration has hit the people hard and they are blaming us for that. Outsiders are ruling the roost. But, by the time elections are held, we will regain our support. You will see,” the BJP leader says.
The last time assembly elections were held in Jammu and Kashmir, then still a state, was in 2014 and the BJP had achieved its highest-ever tally of 25 seats and had gone on to form the government in alliance with the then Mufti Mohd Sayeed-led J&K Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Almost a decade and a bitter divorce later, the BJP and the PDP can’t see eye-to-eye on any issue.
The term of the assembly — Mehbooba Mufti had in the meantime replaced her late father as the chief minister of the alliance government — was truncated and the assembly dissolved.
Locals say the highest-in-35-years turnout in the recent Lok Sabha elections – 58.58% – is a reflection of the yearning for an elected government in the region.
“An elected government, despite its shortcomings and failings, will always be better than the Central government’s rule by proxy through a hugely unpopular LG – Manoj Sinha — who is allegedly ruling through proxies and is not accessible to the common man. But, for some reason, the Centre and the BJP don’t seem keen to bring back democratic normalcy in the state,” says Yasin Ahmed, a Srinagar resident.
The answer, as always, could lie in the numbers.
In the Lok Sabha elections, despite a favourable constituency re-drawing, while the BJP managed to win both the Jammu region seats, the constituency-wise results showed the party has lost ground on many Hindu-dominated seats.
The party came second in Jammu South-RS Pura and Suchetgarh, both seats that it had convincingly won in the 2014 assembly elections.
While the BJP didn’t field a candidate in the Rajouri-Anantnag Lok Sabha constituency, it openly canvassed for the Apni Party candidate Zafar Iqbal Manhas. However, in a shocking setback, the Apni Party nominee trailed even in the assembly constituency last won by current Jammu and Kashmir BJP chief Ravinder Raina. Union Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office Dr Jitender Singh, who was elected for the third time from Udhampur-Doda constituency, trailed the Congress candidate Lal Singh in Bhaderwah and Doda, which are traditionally BJP strongholds.
Adding to the BJP’s list of woes is the fact that, upset over the Central government’s largesse in the shape of Scheduled Tribe status to the Paharis, the influential Gujjar community, once perceived to be strong supporter of the BJP, has dumped the saffron party.
“There is a huge disconnect between the LG’s Administration and the residents. But, then, you can’t expect an unelected LG and his bureaucracy to be a functional replacement of a political, elected system. There is absolutely no accountability. I feel it (is) a great disservice to both the people of J&K and Ladakh as well as the nation that elections are not being held,” says Rakesh Gupta, former president of Jammu Chamber of Commerce.
Connected to the issue of absence of an elected government is the issue of restoration of full statehood for Jammu and Kashmir.
The prevailing sentiment, both in Jammu and Srinagar, is that the Modi government has no intention of restoring full statehood to the areas that fall in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
“The state of Jammu and Kashmir, as it existed before the abrogation of Article 370, is not going to be restored, at least anytime soon. Why else would the Union Ministry of Home Affairs have expanded the scope of the powers of the LG as it did recently through amendments in the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019? It is very clear that the Central government has no intention of allowing an elected government to function here, even if there is one sometime in the future. We will be like Delhi, where there is a constant tussle between the democratically-elected government and the Central government. So many times the matter has gone to the highest court of the land but the confrontation persists. Something similar is in store for us if, ever, we have an elected government,” says a Srinagar resident, who didn’t wish to be quoted over fear of backlash from the government.
A senior government officer also agreed with this sentiment. “Political leaders, if they don’t perform to the expectations of the people, run the risk of getting rejected at the next elections. The LG and bureaucracy face no suck risk. With the recent order giving more powers to the LG, You are basically setting up any future government for failure and constant humiliation, There is no doubt a huge vacuum between the residents and the administration. I have political leaders coming here to my office and telling me that this order is a signal that the BJP doesn’t expect to be in a position to form the government in the state if and when elections are held. But, personally, I strongly feel, that in a region like J&K, national interest must trump political interest (of the BJP). But, that is for the government to understand. We are foot soldiers, implementing whatever we are instructed to do,” says this officer, who also didn’t wish to be quoted speaking on a sensitive matter.
The Opposition Congress, the BJP’s main opponent on most seats in the Jammu region, also wants elections.
“If (the) situation has improved as the Central government wants everyone to believe, why are they shying away from elections? Is it because people will ask the BJP what has been really achieved in the last five years? Joblessness and unemployment, rising militants attacks, especially in Jammu which was relatively peaceful when UPA government led by Manmohan Singh was in power, absence of decent infrastructure, no electricity, high corruption, a highly centralised and inefficient LG and his coterie, falling business revenue… the list is long,” says Jammu and Kashmir Congress spokesperson Kapil Singh.
Singh adds:“It seems J&K is a laboratory of the BJP where the party plays politics and sells it as some great achievement in the rest of the country. But the truth is that on most parameters, the erstwhile state has suffered greatly in the last five years. Unfortunately for the BJP, people, especially in (the) Jammu region, have realised this and will teach the party a lesson whenever elections are held. Look at Leh-Ladakh. People there are also extremely upset with the BJP. So, the question is, if every region is upset and angry, who gained from this so-called masterstroke?”
A Kashmir-based political analyst feels Prime Minister Modi and his government “may not want” to give the world the impression that they let things slide so much in Jammu and Kashmir that they weren’t able to hold elections even after five years.
“Whether we agree or not, is there any doubt that Kashmir is an international issue and all eyes are on us. How will the government explain why, when it tom-toms the favourable Supreme Court judgment on Article 370 as some great victory, it is not able to make up its mind on an important part of the same judgment, which deals with restoring statehood and holding elections. I feel the government will kick-start some kind of process and then tell the court that it needs more time to complete it. It will want the Supreme Court to grant it some kind of a face-saver,” said this analyst.
Many residents in both Jammu and Kashmir wonder whether the government has any plan to hold elections not just for the assembly but also the urban and rural local bodies like panchayats and municipalities.
“The terms of different urban local bodies and rural local bodies have either ended long time back or are about to end. A government that is unable to give a firm commitment to hold assembly elections and restore full statehood or even hold local body elections can’t be trusted when it makes tall claims about having restored normalcy or whatever they want to call it. People in both regions see through the baseless statements,” says another Kashmiri resident.
But, will both — elections and restoration of full statehood happen — is a million dollar question, the answer to which only the future holds.
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